Much attention will focus on the U.S. Presidential Elections for various reasons, but as investors, our primary concern is the impact of the Trump Administration’s policies on commercial real estate. In our business, the priority remains what benefits or harms our investors’ returns.
As policies evolve, we’ll gain a clearer view of the Trump Administration’s influence. However, the focus here is West Coast politics, where we invest. While national elections capture headlines, local politics have a far greater impact on daily life. Municipal elections hold more sway, with lower voter turnout making each vote highly impactful. Unlike the winner-takes-all approach in presidential electoral votes—leaving 39.8% of Californian Trump voters feeling sidelined—local politics offer tangible opportunities to shape community outcomes.
Recent developments on the West Coast over the past couple of years, and in this election, reflect a significant shift. For our business, this marks an improvement in the operating environment and signals widespread dissatisfaction with ‘status quo’ politics.
In Portland, for example, we saw the replacement of the District Attorney with a qualified, moderate candidate committed to enforcing the law. Here’s a look at other notable changes and their implications.
The Oakland Mayor and District Attorney were both recently recalled— the DA for her lenient stance on crime, and the Mayor for multiple issues, likely tied to the city’s poor performance. As active real estate investors in Oakland, we can attest that it remains one of the least attractive West Coast markets for investment. This is driven largely by population decline due to flawed policies and ideologies detrimental to business. Here’s a smattering of articles attesting to the issues:
And perhaps worst of all, as an Oakland A’s fan: It was the Pro Sports Capital of America, Now It’s Been Wiped Off the Map
Los Angeles DA Gascon Loses re-election decisively
Proposition 36 (increased penalties for theft and drug crimes) - won 70%+ of the vote
Proposition 33 (increased rent control) - crushed
And that’s just in CA. If we shift our focus to Portland, we successfully elected Keith Wilson as our new Mayor. Wilson is a moderate businessman and driven non-profit founder who has pledged to end unsheltered homelessness in our city within 1 year. We’ll see if it happens, but swift and decisive action is what’s needed. In his victory speech, incoming Mayor Wilson highlights the “need to restore public safety”.
What’s happening, in other words, is a tidal change in local politics. People are fed up, and just as in national elections, left-wing policies are being seriously tested. Now - as should be obvious - we do live on the West Coast. It isn’t likely to be a tidal change to red. But what is happening is that moderate voters, and even some progressive voters, are discontented and are voting for moderates and common sense policies.
We’ve been saying this now for the last 2 years. Yes - the situation on the ground is bad. But eventually the national media would take note - local voters are taking matters into their own hands, and taking their cities back from the idealogues.
We’re excited for the next few years, and the almost certain improvements to come for the majority of the law-abiding, tax-paying residents of these cities.